Monday Musings October 7, 2024

I'm here, alive, but little new to say. A quick thought on last week's NFP report and an arrow sign to my "notes".

Happy Monday all. Some weeks I just don’t have much to add to the conversation. This is one of those weeks.

If you’re hungry for content please take a look at my recent “notes”, I’ve been active the past week.

Otherwise I can’t say any of my opinions from the past few Monday Musings has changed. Yes yes, I know we got a RED HOT, UNBELIEVABLE, SMOKING, WOOT WOOT jobs report on Friday… but…

As I’ve covered in several notes. Non seasonally adjusted the economy lost hundreds of thousands of private sector jobs last month (as it usually does, summer ends, lifeguards back to class, etc). Maybe I’m a perma-bear but I don’t see the private sector cutting less folks than “expected” as signs of a roaring economy.

Yes, it’s a positive that the government added a ton (they always do in September, and NO! it’s not federal deficit related, these are teachers, etc at the state & local levels); But when the report comes with this highest “seasonal adjustment” in decades (adding +100k “jobs”) and suddenly 16 to 19 year olds are landing HALF the new gigs in the country….I’m skeptical.

Mind you, the total revision down for 2023 in this series was a mere 1 MILLION jobs.

Let’s see what happens when we get into a month where the seasonal folks expect net jobs to be added (i.e. every month except Jan & Sep). Because, judging by hiring in August, things are a little shaky.

There’s more in my head, but it already exists in my notes. So check em’ out!

More next week.

Cheers!